Client:

A financier of oil projects in Ghana

The Assignment:

Forecast of the results of the 2020 Ghanaian elections.

All indications pointed to an election that would be keenly-contested. Our brief was to analyse the impact of voters’ perception of corruption and economic well being on the outcome of the election.

What we achieved:

We correctly forecast the victory of the New Patriotic Party’s candidate – Nana Akufo-Addo. We analysed each party’s share of votes and the margins of victory in the previous three elections and opinion polls (on voters’ intentions) in the run-up to the 2020 elections. We then conducted extensive interviews on the impact of the perception of social policies, especially the free senior high school policy (FSHSP), on voters’ preferences. Our analysis of demographics who resented the rising incidence of corruption and those who supported the FSHSP (despite widespread problems with the implementation) allowed us not only to predict the outcome of elections correctly but also the margin of victory.